“That won’t happen here.” As an advocate of emergency preparedness, this is the single most frustrating statement I hear on a regular basis. Psychologists call this normalcy bias — a tendency to assume that something which hasn’t happened to you in the past will not happen to you in the future. In some cases, normalcy bias is so powerful that it can lead us to believe that things which have happened to us before won’t happen again simply because of the passage of time. Our brains have a natural tendency to fall into these risk assessment traps unless we’re consciously aware of them.

One of the best ways to overcome normalcy bias is to study history. The more we do so, the more we recognize recurring patterns that tell us not only has this happened many times before to people just like me, but it’s also likely to happen again. More importantly, history gives us an account of the events leading up to disasters and the warning signs that we only now recognize with the benefit of hindsight.

In this issue, we examine a controversial topic in a controversial time. Is Balkanization — the fragmentation of a highly diverse region into multiple hostile groups — a real possibility in the United States? This isn’t necessarily a question about civil war, although Balkanization is often a precursor to war. Instead, it’s a matter of gauging how deep the cracks in our society truly are.

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Is the division we see in America mostly a matter of sensationalist rhetoric from TV pundits and harmless keyboard warriors on social media? Or could it escalate into irreconcilable rifts between states and regions, and if it did, how would it affect us?

For some valuable historical perspective, we spoke to Selco Begovic, a survival instructor and author who lived through Balkanization, the breakdown of law and order, all-out war, and unspeakable atrocities after the collapse of his home country Yugoslavia. His account paints a picture with some eerie similarities to America today. Additionally, in our What If column, we asked two experts — a former government contractor and a former combat medic — how they would respond if the United States became fragmented.

Elsewhere in this issue, I interviewed former Navy SEAL Rich Graham regarding the importance of well-rounded preparedness, his educated perspective on current events, and the moral principles that keep him grounded. I also flew out to Florida for some intense training with Graham at his 55-acre private facility in the Ocala National Forest and wrote about the lessons I learned there.

Discretion is an important element of preparedness, since you don’t necessarily want to show all your cards to anyone who might be looking. So, I wrote about a training course taught by Ed’s Manifesto and Rogue Methods, which focused on revolvers for deep concealment and close-range self-defense.

Edged weapons specialist Mike Searson reviewed nonmetallic shivs for nonpermissive environments in Pocket Preps, associate editor Patrick Diedrich showed how he built a stealth overland truck loaded with gear, and Tom Marshall reviewed the new Haley Strategic Incog concealable plate carrier with ultra lightweight DFNDR Armor plates. And that’s just a small taste of the content we’ve worked hard to compile for this issue.

The future is never certain, but by examining the past, we can ward off normalcy bias and prepare for various outcomes. I sincerely hope that the rumblings of division in America don’t lead to fragmentation and collapse as they have in other nations and empires of the past, but it’s still a scenario we must consider and prepare for.

In the meantime, I encourage you to look past petty disagreements and strengthen your connections to your family, friends, and neighbors. A prepared individual is strong, but a prepared community is far more resilient. Our Founding Fathers put it best:

“To render us again one people, acting as one nation, should be the object of every man really a patriot. I am satisfied it can be done, and I own that the day which should convince me of the contrary would be the bitterest of my life.” – Thomas Jefferson

“You will never know how much it cost the present generation to preserve your freedom! I hope you will make a good use of it.” – John Adams

Read More From Issue 64

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• What If: America Is Fragmented
• Pocket Preps: Nonmetallic Knives
• Surviving Total Collapse: The Balkan War
• The Warrior’s Path: Interview with Rich Graham
• Haley Strategic’s Low-Visibility Thorax Incog
• Hands On: Clean Water To Go with the Grayl Geopress
• The Full Spectrum Warrior
• The Way of the Wheelgun
• Bag Drop: Low Vis Gear ISR Pack
• Book Review: The SHTF Anthology by Selco Begovic
• Stealth Overlanding Rig
• What’s Bugging You: Bug Bites and Stings
• Gear Up: New Survival Gear for October 2024

Editor's Note: This article has been modified from its original print version for the web.

Written by Patrick McCarthy